Liverpool - Darwin's Theory
Liverpool made a seemingly big change this summer, going away from the false 9 that has wrought so much success. But was it the right move?
A few days ago I put out something on Erling Haaland and why despite him being guaranteed to score goals (even if he missed some sitters on Saturday), he could make Manchester City worse as an overall unit.
Well for Liverpool’s new signing, Uruguayan sensation Darwin Nunez, I envision no such scenario.
As soon as I got my first viewing of him (after the Liverpool agreement was announced), I was certain he'd be a star for Jurgen Klopp’s men.
Now, this may seem like a case of double standards: I like the signing of Nunez for Liverpool a lot, but not the signing of a player who the football world has come to the consensus will be the best 9 in the world - if he is not already.
How does that make sense?
A few reasons.
A: Haaland is a rather rigid player in his skillset. As is documented, he has a rather loose touch and isn't a dribbler. He's not a static target ala Zlatan Ibrahimovic, he does work the channels well and attacks space well, but he has things he's very good at and often doesn't steer far from them.
B: the type of player Haaland is, isn't the type that is a seamless fit with the current crop of City players and the style.
C: the gap between Nunez and Haaland is nowhere near as large as people seem to think it is.
Now, how does Nunez fit? Because essentially, he's Sadio Mane's replacement, and to put things simply, he does not play like the Senegalese international.
Mane spent the back end of the season as a false 9, and Nunez is not the false 9 profile we have come to expect over the last few years with Jurgen Klopp at the helm. Roberto Firmino was a number 10 functioning with total freedom to roam without a centre forward, and Mane had the same licence to create for others and link with his fellow frontmen.
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Instead, Nunez is your big ‘target man’ type who leads the line. A striker who lives off of winning aerial duels, finishing by striking through the ball and bringing others into play as a lone front man. He also has the forever valuable skill of being able to run in behind at alarming speed, which will always give defenders fits when dealing with top-tier athletes. All on low touch volume.
Quite the change from the quick combinations, fluidity and much higher touch volume from the original front three of the Scousers.
For reference, in their most recent league season playing high volume minutes, the touches per minutes stats for the following Liverpool forwards were: 49.1 for Mo Salah, 50.1 for Firmino (20/21), 49.7 for Mane and 50.8 for Luis Diaz. Diaz with just half a season albeit. Even Diogo Jota, who will experience a big drop in minutes, had 34.3 a game.
Nunez operated at under 30 a game last season. Of course, other factors come into play: Liverpool had a slightly higher possession rate than Benfica and they were very methodical in the way they played. Far more than the Portuguese side.
But ultimately, there's a clear difference between Nunez and Mane or Firmino.
That will trickle into Liverpool and cause some tweaks to their system. Whereas before, the false 9 would drop deeper and give an extra man in midfield to help cycle the ball around the field and give an option between the lines, which won't be as frequent with Nunez.
You can see above, the false 9 dropped so deep, it was verging on a diamond shape at times for Liverpool. This won’t be as frequent this season, with Nunez playing far higher. Salah will likely drop a little deeper and wider to focus more on creation with the Number 9’s presence.
I think Liverpool will delve into a more direct approach. One that induces more chaos in games with them - something I think they will relish with this crop of forwards.
My projection for how Liverpool will adapt against low blocks is that it will have Salah undertaking the same inside forward positions, but not as focused on scoring. Nunez will look to pin the two (or three) centre-backs as deep as he can, and Diaz will stay wider.
The Colombian will be able to focus on creating with his tricky dribbling, able to go either way and shoot or cross. Salah will be coming inside, bouncing 1-2s off Nunez and making a play from there. Nunez is to be pulling into the left channel to attract attention. That attention in turn will give Diaz freedom to come inside and shoot as he (much to the frustration of Liverpool fans) did so very often last season. Of course, he will be making sharp little movements to free some space either for him or his teammates in the opposition third. A five-yard dash to the right half-space. A little sprint to open a 1-2 opportunity. A flash across the centre backs that causes a split-second of hesitation.
Many options promise much.
It also provides other avenues that they previously did not have. Jurgen Klopp has never had a number 9 with the searing speed that Nunez has. This gives teams further thought when attempting to pin Liverpool back while flooding bodies forward. It was always two of three players who Liverpool could hit long balls to escape the press. And it was never down the middle of the field: the quickest route to goal.
Now, Liverpool possess three physical freaks in Salah, Nunez and Diaz who offer elite transition threats as ball carriers and finishers.
It also gives an actual target for fullback extraordinaire Trent Alexander-Arnold from open play. This is opposed to whipping balls in that would look for the average-sized men Liverpool frequently employed in their front line.
Naturally, it presents a problem for teams at set pieces too. Liverpool now have four players at 6’2 and above who will start almost every game. Virgil Van Dijk is a given. One of Joel Matip, Ibrahima Konate and Joe Gomez to partner him. Then Fabinho and Nunez. That promises to cause nightmares for players in both boxes. Not to mention their goalkeeper, who is the best in the world, standing at 6’3.
For me, the best-case scenario for Liverpool with Nunez is they could be even better than last season. Crazy, I know. Worst case, they are a little bit less effective but are still a top 2 team in the country.
Ultimately, Liverpool had a few options this summer. They could have signed a player to keep the same system that wasn't as good as Mane, which would have more than likely made them worse. Say Christopher Nkunku or Serge Gnabry. They could have signed a player of a completely different profile and gone down the route of being a slightly more finesse team in possession. A player more like a Xherdan Shaqiri profile.
Or they could sign a player which would cause some alterations to their system at the surface level, yet gives them more ways to win and an even more dynamic approach to football matches. That's what Darwin Nunez brings. A big frame, monster athleticism, a nice dribbler (especially for his size), a venomous ball striker and an aerial threat. And maybe most importantly, a real desire to score goals.
And truly, Liverpool are not changing *that* much. Mane and Firmino were both physical monsters at their best. They are doubling down on being the most physically dominant team in football. A side that will wear you down and bully you for 90 minutes with their grit and almost supernatural physicality. Combine that with their superb tactical system, and The Reds are just as dangerous as ever.
When all that is taken into account, for me, Number 27 fits in better with Liverpool than anyone can imagine.
Darwin could stand to make them even better than they already were last season. And they were two goals away from winning the quadruple.
And that would be a scary evolution for everyone.
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